Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Market Comment - Monday April 27th 2009

Over the weekend some agents defied protocol and ran open for inspections and even auctions before 1pm on Saturday. I would have preferred to give the day its due recognition but others didn’t. I think this is disappointing.

For the full week however sales were up dramatically over the same week last year. This year REIV has reported 865 sales and the corresponding week last year only 694. This is just short of a 25% increase. We can assume this trend will continue during the foreseeable future.

Last week there was talk of the First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) not continuing, then it was going to continue, then it was going to change form, then only the “boost” was going to change!!!!! When dealing with politicians, who knows what they will really do until its done, and then who knows what they will change when they have said they won’t!!!!!

It is easier to work out what is likely to occur if the FHOG stays or if it goes. Firstly, if it stays in the same form there will be a continuing push for people to purchase property. This will continue to affect the sub $500k market the most. However, plenty of people who are selling their properties under $500k and are getting more than they had anticipated, and are now purchasing in the $500k - $1M range. These successful vendors now have a little more money than they anticipated and they are using it to purchase their second house. The flow on effect of the FHOG will be felt much stronger in this higher market, the longer the grant is in place. The other catalyst for this mid range is interest rates. Whilst I can remember paying 17.5% for my family home in the 80’s, 5% that we pay now seems almost like free money.

If the grant stays in a changed format which only assists those who are building, and I believe this the most likely, then there may be a stabilisation of property prices of established properties under $500k but I doubt there will be any drop. First home buyers have gone from around 17% to nearly 25% of the market. The majority of these would have been buying new house and land packages in outer lying suburbs. These suburbs have shown large growth over the last six months almost solely due to the FHOG. If the grant does not continue it is these suburbs that will bear the brunt of any price decrease in property market.

In short; whether the grant stays or goes there will be little significant change to the established property market within 20kms of the CBD. Conversely, there could be a substantial drop in price for any of the outer lying (new estate) suburbs. It is not only first home owners that are driving the inner city market. Only last week we saw the population growth of Melbourne is still exceeding all other capital cities in Australia. We still do not have enough dwellings to house our existing population, let alone our growing population. We still have low interest rates and will have until we begin to come out of this recession.

Is it the right time to buy? Properties in the inner 20km will not drop in price in the near future, regardless of the FHOG. If you are secure in your job, have equity or a deposit, now, like always is a good time to buy property. If you would like more information, or you are in the market to purchase at the moment, please feel free to contact us for a no obligation meeting.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Market Comment - Monday April 20th 2009

Are auctions beginning to fade into insignificance? With only 442 reported auctions to the REIV this week and about 200 next week, it seems that Real estate Agents are losing faith in this method of sale. There were in excess of 900 private sales reported to the REIV last week and add this to the auctions that either sold before, sold after or passed in and were then negotiated to a sale, it seems that Melbournians are beginning to see that auctions are not the only method of sale in this town.

If this trend continues, it will hurt the advertising budgets of most real estate agents. The auction process, by definition, is a fast paced, highly visible, highly marketed system of selling real estate. It gives both the property for sale and the agency a high profile with the hope of attracting multiple offers for the property in a short period of time. By creating competition, the price should increase. Even if the price does not increase it brings the property to its conclusion quicker by putting a fixed date. This is great if it works. It is not good if it doesn’t. Many vendors will agree to pay thousands of dollars to build the competition to get a good price for their property. If it fails they are still liable for this advertising fee.

More vendors are now opting for a more cautious approach of private sale with a minimal marketing budget. As there are fewer properties on the market, it is not as necessary to pay huge marketing dollars to help your property “stand out from the crowd”. This will cause no end of angst for most Real Estate Agencies. They will need to fund their own advertising campaigns. Profile is the single biggest selling feature of a real estate agency.

As the advertising dollars dry up, there are less signs on houses, as there are less houses for sale, and as turnover drops down to much lower levels than the heady days of 2006 and 2007, watch out for the larger franchises moving to generic marketing of their brand. The smaller agencies will not be able to compete and, as we saw in the early nineties, there will be a lot of consolidation of Real estate Agencies.

To the buyer this will mean private treaty negotiation will take on a whole new meaning. This is the time when more “cowboys” may be seen in the industry. This is the time that “creative” advertising campaigns tend to be seen more often. It may be much more difficult to find out exactly what the agent actually wants for the property he is trying to sell. To attempt to do this yourself without an experienced Advocate/Negotiator, you may cost yourself a lot more and worse than that, not get your terms, or make a costly mistake of buying a property which does not meet your needs.

If you are looking to buy property at the moment, please give us a call. We will organise a no obligation meeting to discuss your needs show you how we can assist.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Market Comment - Monday April 13th 2009

Vendor Advocacy
Vendor advocates are popping up all over Melbourne. The majority of Buyer Advocates in Melbourne do some sort of vendor advocacy.(Apart from a potential legal conflict of interest, the moral dilemma would be next to impossible to cope with). There are quite a few selling agents who are promoting vendor advocacy quite strongly. After the debacle 10 days ago with a vendor advocate I thought we would look further at
Vendor Advocacy. The worst situation is the Vendor Advocate who is not even licensed.

Typically a vendor advocate will interview three agents within the area the vendor is selling and make a recommendation as to which agent to use. Once an agent is chosen, the vendor advocate will negotiate the commission. This is a fundamental problem. The vendor advocate is being paid a percentage of this commission. In other words the vendor is paying an advocate to try and lower his own fee. Doesn’t really make sense does it?

The vendor advocate will then monitor the entire sales process. They will work alongside that Agent during the selling campaign making sure, on the vendor’s behalf, that the marketing and advertising are right, the costs are crystal clear and under control and the Agent does everything they say they will do. What surprises me is that, after the “vendor’s advocate” has decided who the best agent in the area is – why does he need to do this. Are all Real Estate agents so unscrupulous that they need monitoring? Why doesn’t the Government do something about these agents?

If you look at all of these facts then, look at motivation of the agent you will also see another huge negative. If the agent is paying the vendor advocate up to 40% of the commission it leaves only 60% for their agency. If the Real Estate agent has three houses in a similar area, with similar attributes, at a similar price; two of which are paying 100% commission and 1 of which is paying 60% commission, which ones do you think he or she is pushing the hardest?

Finally, all offers are “vetted” by the vendor advocate. If there is to be any negotiation sometimes the vendor advocate does it, even though he hasn’t dealt with the potential purchaser before, sometimes the agent does it – then what is the vendor paying an advocate for or what’s worse, neither of them communicate clearly and the following can occur:

After inspecting a property with our client, we found that it was of interest. It was an unusual property that was well over the average value in the area. I spoke to the principal of the agency and asked how the offers were going to be handled. This is not unusual as many agents do things differently. Some will have a boardroom auction; others will say put your best offer forward others will say first person to offer ‘X’ dollars will buy the property.

When queried the principal of the agency told me a “Vendor Advocate” was in charge. I asked who was holding the authority. Her reply was that her agency held the authority but the vendor’s advocate was putting the offers to the vendor. She asked me to call him. He explained to me that if we presented an offer of $850,000 that would buy the property – no ifs or buts. I qualified this with him and asked when this would happen. He explained that at 5.00pm he was meting with the vendor. If we had a signed offer he would have it countersigned. At 4.55pm I called him and said I had a signed offer and it was being faxed through to the agent now. His response – the property is yours. I asked for signatures straight away. He replied we would have them within the hour.

At 5.45 the principal of the real estate agency calls me to explain the property has been sold to someone else. Documents are signed and the deal is done. I asked what had happened and was told there was an offer of $881k and this was accepted by the vendor. When I explained what the Vendors advocate had told me – she replied I would need to take this up with him. I explained that my clients had asked me to find out – “what buys the property” I explained I was not asked for more money, nor was I asked for our “best offer”. So whilst my client missed out so did the vendor. Due to a total lack of communication, the selling agents made it impossible to have any real competition.

When I was finally able to catch up with the vendor advocate, I asked what happened. He explained that he was unaware of the other offer. The other party had been told the property would be sold at 5.00pm and they had not made an offer of $850k. They were told that another partywas involved and were given an opportunity to increase their offer above ours by the agency principal. We were not given the same consideration; in fact we were told verbally we had secured the property and we were just waiting on signatures.

Overall a total lack of communication between the agency and the vendor advocate meant their vendor did not get the best price. As a buyer, when dealing with vendor advocates you must try to communicate with both parties. Even when everything seems very obvious, even when you are told what is happening, it may not be the case. As a vendor, be very careful who you choose to be your vendor advocate. More often than not you will do much better going directly to any of the more recognised agents in the area.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Market Comment - Case Study - When Auctions Go Bad

What do you do when the auctioneer brings down the hammer and you have the highest bid? You have bought the property. You can bask in the applause from the crowd. You can begin celebrating and sign the papers. There are the formalities of documentation but usually these take only a few minutes.

The auctioneers team rushes the winner inside, takes their deposit writes up the contracts and has the buyer sign them. The agents then have the vendor sign and the contract is complete. The SOLD sticker goes up and the sale of the property is over.

On a slightly overcast day in April, the JPP team arrives in Glen Waverley to assist one of our clients to purchase their dream home. We have analysed the property, we have negotiated the terms we will sign under if successful and we are prepared to bid. While we were representing the purchaser, the vendor was being represented by a “Vendor’s Advocate”

The auction begins with the usual ringing of the bell and then the auctioneer begins his show. He reads from the rules of auctions, he tells us a bit about the vendor’s statement and the contract and he also espouses how sensational the area and this particular house is. So far no different to the thousand or so other auctions I have attended.

The bidding begins and within a few minutes of myself and one other person bidding at $627,500 I asked if the property is on the market. The auctioneer gave me a usual deflection line and did not answer the question in either the positive or the negative. I did not put in a further bid and waited. The auctioneer, with no further bidding went inside to consult the vendor. When he came outside he asked the other bidder in the audience to confirm their bid at $627,500. They did and he turned to me and announced the property was on the market. If there was no further bidding the property would be sold.

I bid and so did the other interested party. We fought out the auction and finally I was successful with a bid of $670,000. In fact it was my very last bid as we had agreed with our client this was a fair and reasonable price to pay for the property. We had already done a 20 page report and this is where comparable sales put the price point for this particular property.

When we began to move into the house the agent came up to us and asked if we would mind filling in the paperwork around the corner at his office. It would be more comfortable and easier. Alarm bells were going off in my mind and that of my colleagues. This was most unusual but not unprecedented.

Antony accompanied our client to the agent’s office and filled in the contract whilst we waited for the Vendor Advocate to bring the vendor up to the office. Subsequently, the Vendor Advocate arrived alone, but with a valuation certificate. He explained to Antony that his client was unaware their property had been put on the market. He explained she actually wanted $690,000 as this is what the valuation certificate stated and he put it on the table for all of us to see. Both the sales agent and Antony were flabbergasted. This Vendor Advocate had come into the office without the vendor and intimated that to complete the purchase on the property we would need to pay $690,000. Antony immediately asked him to put the paperwork away and demanded they all go back to the vendors house to finalise the contract by getting the vendors signatures. He proceeded, with our client, and the Vendors Advocate in tow back to the property.

Whilst this was going on we had already sought and received legal advice. We had made it very clear to both agents that they had a legal and moral responsibility to organise the sale at the price that was agreed at the auction. The selling agent we had been dealing with throughout the campaign was absolutely fantastic. At no stage did he think anything else but get the deal done at the agreed price.

After three and half hours of further negotiation, threats and discussion we finally received signed contracts. Our client and her daughter, although quite shaken, were ecstatic. Without a buyer advocate assisting I believe the deal would either not have happened or the purchaser may have been persuaded to pay more than the price bid under the hammer or worse still, ended up in a lengthy court battle. By remaining focused and calm we were able to secure the property for the agreed price of $670,000, for our client.

Market Comment - Monday April 6th 2009

For the seventh straight week, with the exception of the Labour Day week, we have seen more than 1000 sales reported to the REIV. The market is not only heating up in the $300k -$500k segment, but all the way up and beyond $1M mark. Trends do not, however, begin with one sale. There were several properties over the weekend that achieved results reminiscent of 2007 but on the whole the market seems quite stable with most properties achieving quite realistic results.

Finally even the REIV have begun to realise that the “Clearance rate” is not going to have the significance it had in 2006 and 2007. There has been an increase of 26% in reported private sales this year and a drop of 56% on the number of auctions according to the REIV. The REIV would report on most auctions but to think that anything over about 60% of private sales would be reported to the REIV would probably be wishful. From the anecdotal assumption that the split between Private Sales to Auctions in Melbourne was about 70:30%, I would suggest we are now looking at 80:20 and if we take into account sales before auction, pass in and Sold after, as well as properties that are passed in, then immediately sold and reported as sold at auction, we are most likely looking at the “clearance rate” representing less than 10% of the market sales.

RP Data have released figures showing a 1.9% increase in the median price of property across Melbourne. With the exception of Darwin, whose market is relatively small and by extension quite volatile, Melbourne had the highest capital growth of any capital city. Is it any wonder why? We still have the fastest growing population of any capital city. Our economy is in much better shape than our neighbouring states, and our infrastructure whilst not perfect is in pretty good shape.

We need more housing built. A finance company was quoted through the week as saying we have an oversupply of housing and that population growth would only require the building of 12000 dwellings nationwide next year. This would equate to an increased population of only 28,800 people. It’s great to see the Australian Bureau of Statistics isn’t needed anymore. The planning level for the 2008–09 Migration Program is set at 190 300 places. This does not include our natural population growth either.

First home buyers, investors who want to avoid the volatility of the share market and increase the certainty of capital growth, people who are selling their $400k properties and changing up to $1m+, even the top end of town is slowly starting to awaken. There are more people wanting to buy property than there are properties to buy.

THIS IS THE REASON PROPERTY PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE.

Selling Agents only have a limited supply of stock and this allows them to spend more time on each of their properties. If you are in the market to purchase you had better have a good negotiator on your side. I had a woman call me on Thursday. She had purchased a property subject to a building inspection and the building inspection was particularly poor. She asked some advice as to whether she should proceed or not. One five minute phone call saved her over $5000. Another client asked me a question about a property negotiation he was involved in. One five minute conversation, what seemed like a huge and difficult problem – solved!

You are going to be making the largest financial decision of your life when buying a new property. GET SOME ADVICE!!

Call us now for a no obligation meeting to see how we can help you

Ian James